It's civil war! Head for the hills!

I’ve found the coverage of the recent Iraqi national election somewhat lacking here in the US, but there was one theme I found prominently displayed in almost all reports: the idea that, should this election “fail,” Iraq would certainly descend into civil war.

This statement is ridiculous on its face, of course, since the vast, vast majority of Iraqis have clearly NOT taken up arms, but have chosen instead to participate in the political process. But a recent BBC survey also belies this “civil war” theory, and belies it in a big way.

Fully 88% of Iraqis surveyed stated a preference either for “One unified Iraq with central government in Baghdad” or “A group of regional states with their own regional governments and a federal government in Baghdad.” Only 9% favored separate states for the country’s regions.

And while there is some will for a single, strong leader (or group of leaders) to step up to the plate, there is an even stronger will for “An Iraqi democracy” (Q20). More than 57% of Iraqis think democracy is what the country needs now, and even more feel that it’s what Iraq will need in five years’ time (Q21). More than 76% expect the December 2005 elections to produce a government in which they’ll have “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence (Q22).

What about the idea that the continued presence of US forces is an “irritant”? Question 35 asks about “which…things make you insecure.” Terrorism leads by a wide margin, being mentioned by almost 54% of respondents. “US/Coalition presence” was mentioned by only about 10% of people. There is no love lost for Coalition forces, of course; but it seems that the man on the street has no trouble identifying the real enemy.

The section of the survey dealing with local conditions is also telling. Interestingly, “The Security Situation” is not viewed as darkly by ordinary Iraqis as it seems to be by the US mainstream media. Indeed, 61% rate it “very good” or “quite good.” Approximately 21% rate it “very bad.” The local issues Iraqis seem most concerned about are the availability of jobs and electricity—both are rated marginally into the “bad” (Q13).

But here’s the thing: the poll suggests that most Iraqis feel that these things have either improved or stayed the same since the US invasion in March 2003. More than 60% of Iraqis consider the security situation the same or better than during the Saddam years, 56% say the jobs situation is the same or better, and nearly 62% feel the electricity situation is the same or better.

In other “same or better” categories we have:

Availability of clean water: 72%
Availability of medical care: 76%
Local schools: 84%
Local government: 67%
Availability of basic household needs: 72%
Your family’s protection from crime: 69%
Your family’s economic situation: 75%
Your freedom of speech: 72%

And lest anyone accuse me of cherrypicking, these eight (plus security, electricity, and jobs) represent every category surveyed by the BBC.

The Iraqis are never going to be the kind of cheerleaders we’d hoped, and that’s fine. I can’t imagine any situation where I’d be pleased to have the US occupied on an open-ended basis by foreign troops. But the average Iraqi seems to think his life is better now, or at least no worse, than before we arrived. They are beginning to show confidence in their civic institutions and displaying a healthy enthusiasm for democracy. Most importantly, they seem to believe that the insurgents are the real enemy.

Is this a country teetering on the brink of civil war? Perhaps; but I tend to think it’s a state resolutely weathering the pangs of its rebirth.

Tags: Iraq, Election, Democracy, BBC, Survey, Insurgency, Terrorist, Murtha