22 June 2005

Am I the only one who takes heart in this news?

Image Hosted by ImageShack.usI will be the first to admit that the Iraqi insurgency is a mess and a tragedy--a mess because of its apparent intractability, and a tragedy because I believe that some prewar planning on occupation policies might have prevented many deaths. But I nevertheless believe that we are on the right side, and that to leave the job half done would be a great insult to the Iraqi people.

That said, I take heart in something I recently read in the New York Times (registration required) that suggests that the insurgents are battling among themselves in what has been dubbed "red on red" attacks:
Insurgents, they say, have been fighting each other in towns along the Euphrates from Husayba, on the border, to Qaim, farther west. The observations offer a new clue in the hidden world of the insurgency and suggest that there may have been, as American commanders suggest, a split between Islamic militants and local rebels.

A United Nations official who served in Iraq last year and who consulted widely with militant groups said in a telephone interview that there has been a split for some time.

"There is a rift," said the official, who requested anonymity, citing the sensitivity of the talks he had held. "I'm certain that the nationalist Iraqi part of the insurgency is very much fed up with the Jihadists grabbing the headlines and carrying out the sort of violence that they don't want against innocent civilians."

The nationalist insurgent groups, "are giving a lot of signals implying that there should be a settlement with the Americans," while the Jihadists have a purely ideological agenda, he added.
This strikes me as a very positive sign. While the violence has undeniably spiked, a sense may be beginning to emerge that it may not be the best approach toward gaining political clout.

The Sunni population is coming around to the idea of political participation--not quickly, to be sure, but change is in the wind. A recent poll shows that "fully two-thirds of Iraqis believe their country is headed in the right direction...While a poll in January showed only 11 percent of Sunni Muslims in Iraq shared that view, that percentage has since grown to 40...." More significantly, a Sunni political bloc is being formed with the explicit aim of preserving and representing Sunni rights and political aims.

Will this justify the body count? If it leads to a stable, pluralistic democracy, I think so; but history will be the ultimate judge. For now, I see some reason to hope, and strong reasons not to abandon the charge we have taken upon our shoulders.

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